{
  "generated_utc": "2026-08-23T17:17:38.311341+00:00",
  "analysis_contract": {
    "unit": "manager x dynasty league-season",
    "cohort": "same manager, same roster id next season; losing at trade time and at season end; completed next rookie-draft slot; >=3 graded trades made while below .500; >=3 fixed one-year outcomes",
    "main_scope": "2020-2024 superflex dynasty",
    "price_discipline": "median trade-day acquired/given percent margin",
    "asset_selection": "median 100*log change in acquired/given value ratio at fixed one-year horizon",
    "groups": "terciles assigned separately inside each season and format; comparison is bottom-price/top-selection versus top-price/bottom-selection",
    "outcome": "next-season regular-season top-three finish",
    "uncertainty": "manager-block bootstrap",
    "adjustment": "starting record, final win rate, points percentile, earned rookie slot, trade timing/count, league size, deal size, acquired pick-value share, net picks, player counts, acquired position mix, and season",
    "causal_claim": false
  },
  "quality": {
    "source": {
      "database": "postgresql-read-only",
      "generated_utc": "2026-08-23T17:14:30.222248+00:00",
      "latest_result_at": "2026-08-23 14:17:01.823974",
      "result_count": 508
    },
    "source_observation_n": 3534,
    "unique_observation_n": 3534,
    "fixed_horizon_eligible_n": 3421,
    "symmetric_margin_horizon_eligible_n": 3522,
    "fixed_horizon_zero_side_trades_excluded": 359,
    "main_n": 2947,
    "main_manager_n": 2002,
    "main_league_n": 1972,
    "season_counts": {
      "2020": 184,
      "2021": 312,
      "2022": 618,
      "2023": 895,
      "2024": 938
    },
    "price_selection_correlation": -0.28680531142360277,
    "baseline_standard_mean_differences": {
      "league_size": 0.0199149598224531,
      "record_pct_at_trade": -0.15931865951672242,
      "trade_week": -0.04381463033074038,
      "trade_count": -0.06310874271789531,
      "current_final_win_pct": -0.0993885558010278,
      "current_final_points_percentile": -0.02464171766676646,
      "earned_rookie_slot_percentile": -0.030249362515240994,
      "median_deal_size": -0.03765571007690235,
      "total_deal_size": -0.058527271753644576
    },
    "max_abs_baseline_standard_mean_difference": 0.15931865951672242,
    "asset_composition_standard_mean_differences": {
      "mean_acquired_pick_value_share": -0.8399093071437052,
      "net_pick_count": -0.9600406700002116,
      "acquired_player_count": 0.23382519411701508,
      "sold_player_count": -0.08597355189811477,
      "acquired_qb_share": 0.11085931680561151,
      "acquired_rb_share": -0.06531617788669068,
      "acquired_wr_share": 0.13011873690295392,
      "acquired_te_share": 0.031814559712390035
    },
    "max_abs_asset_composition_standard_mean_difference": 0.9600406700002116
  },
  "main": {
    "overpay_correct": {
      "n": 447,
      "next_top3_rate_pct": 11.856823266219239,
      "next_rank_percentile": 32.63010914017626,
      "next_win_pct": 37.27631428973711,
      "next_points_percentile": 30.997781736036767,
      "median_trade_day_margin_pct": -56.4,
      "median_one_year_relative_change_pct": 78.04376599221496,
      "median_trade_n": 4,
      "median_deal_size": 1647.5,
      "median_total_deal_size": 10409.0
    },
    "price_win_wrong": {
      "n": 479,
      "next_top3_rate_pct": 23.173277661795407,
      "next_rank_percentile": 45.543109175677024,
      "next_win_pct": 46.84163435729198,
      "next_points_percentile": 46.34898388551833,
      "median_trade_day_margin_pct": 47.1,
      "median_one_year_relative_change_pct": -57.33710705441568,
      "median_trade_n": 4,
      "median_deal_size": 1767.0,
      "median_total_deal_size": 9563.5
    },
    "raw_top3_gap_pct_point": 11.316454395576168,
    "adjusted_top3_gap_pct_point": 8.960122569971025,
    "bootstrap": {
      "raw_95_pct_point": [
        6.512120046171605,
        16.01767192339952
      ],
      "adjusted_95_pct_point": [
        3.1724283668149553,
        14.542805594890737
      ]
    },
    "league_block_bootstrap": {
      "raw_95_pct_point": [
        6.461432096868669,
        16.198564593301434
      ],
      "adjusted_95_pct_point": [
        3.4286387429108443,
        14.570785946836923
      ]
    },
    "alternate_outcomes": {
      "next_top3": {
        "raw_gap": 0.11316454395576168,
        "adjusted_gap": 0.08960122569971025
      },
      "next_rank_pct": {
        "raw_gap": 0.12913000035500766,
        "adjusted_gap": 0.09640703630352274
      },
      "next_win_pct": {
        "raw_gap": 0.09565320067554872,
        "adjusted_gap": 0.07415813172072581
      },
      "next_points_pct": {
        "raw_gap": 0.15351202149481563,
        "adjusted_gap": 0.11026225472933943
      }
    },
    "matrix": [
      {
        "price_group": 1,
        "selection_group": 1,
        "n": 213,
        "next_top3_rate_pct": 11.737089201877934,
        "next_points_percentile": 28.198343127920594
      },
      {
        "price_group": 1,
        "selection_group": 2,
        "n": 324,
        "next_top3_rate_pct": 12.654320987654321,
        "next_points_percentile": 32.48146229627711
      },
      {
        "price_group": 1,
        "selection_group": 3,
        "n": 447,
        "next_top3_rate_pct": 11.856823266219239,
        "next_points_percentile": 30.997781736036767
      },
      {
        "price_group": 2,
        "selection_group": 1,
        "n": 292,
        "next_top3_rate_pct": 17.123287671232877,
        "next_points_percentile": 40.33430040279355
      },
      {
        "price_group": 2,
        "selection_group": 2,
        "n": 379,
        "next_top3_rate_pct": 20.052770448548813,
        "next_points_percentile": 42.093895550359925
      },
      {
        "price_group": 2,
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        "next_points_percentile": 41.342080570376396
      },
      {
        "price_group": 3,
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        "next_points_percentile": 46.34898388551833
      },
      {
        "price_group": 3,
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        "next_top3_rate_pct": 28.31541218637993,
        "next_points_percentile": 50.62408718322696
      },
      {
        "price_group": 3,
        "selection_group": 3,
        "n": 223,
        "next_top3_rate_pct": 16.591928251121075,
        "next_points_percentile": 40.03449465332874
      }
    ]
  },
  "robustness": {
    "all_dynasty_formats": {
      "n": 3421,
      "overpay_correct_n": 523,
      "price_win_wrong_n": 552,
      "overpay_correct_top3_rate_pct": 13.001912045889103,
      "price_win_wrong_top3_rate_pct": 22.82608695652174,
      "gap_pct_point": 9.824174910632635,
      "next_points_percentile_gap": 14.660943552372597
    },
    "seasons_2021_2024": {
      "n": 2763,
      "overpay_correct_n": 417,
      "price_win_wrong_n": 446,
      "overpay_correct_top3_rate_pct": 11.750599520383693,
      "price_win_wrong_top3_rate_pct": 22.19730941704036,
      "gap_pct_point": 10.446709896656666,
      "next_points_percentile_gap": 14.958816733827218
    },
    "at_least_4_horizon_trades": {
      "n": 1668,
      "overpay_correct_n": 260,
      "price_win_wrong_n": 279,
      "overpay_correct_top3_rate_pct": 12.307692307692308,
      "price_win_wrong_top3_rate_pct": 25.448028673835125,
      "gap_pct_point": 13.140336366142819,
      "next_points_percentile_gap": 15.786195148478022
    },
    "bottom_third_current_finish": {
      "n": 2619,
      "overpay_correct_n": 404,
      "price_win_wrong_n": 421,
      "overpay_correct_top3_rate_pct": 10.891089108910892,
      "price_win_wrong_top3_rate_pct": 22.802850356294538,
      "gap_pct_point": 11.911761247383646,
      "next_points_percentile_gap": 16.16503460792166
    },
    "ten_to_fourteen_teams": {
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      "overpay_correct_n": 440,
      "price_win_wrong_n": 469,
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      "gap_pct_point": 11.209536731924793,
      "next_points_percentile_gap": 15.040175036782905
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    "exclude_top_1pct_active_managers": {
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    "one_observation_per_manager": {
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      "overpay_correct_n": 311,
      "price_win_wrong_n": 320,
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      "next_points_percentile_gap": 14.264208683420904
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    "mean_instead_of_median": {
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      "price_win_wrong_n": 479,
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      "next_points_percentile_gap": 15.444382753521763
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    "median_split": {
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      "next_points_percentile_gap": 11.451260900079802
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    "quartile_extremes": {
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      "next_points_percentile_gap": 17.287776807610772
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    "include_zero_side_horizons_symmetric_margin": {
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      "price_win_wrong_n": 502,
      "overpay_correct_top3_rate_pct": 10.944206008583691,
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      "next_points_percentile_gap": 15.145927338017351
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    "season_2020": {
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      "next_points_percentile_gap": 20.581425308698037
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    "season_2021": {
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      "next_points_percentile_gap": 19.453412694988394
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    "season_2022": {
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    "season_2023": {
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      "next_points_percentile_gap": 15.35268489362056
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    "season_2024": {
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      "gap_pct_point": 7.989862611711351,
      "next_points_percentile_gap": 13.545612569222005
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    "fixed_groups_player_heavy_acquisitions": {
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    "fixed_groups_mixed_acquisitions": {
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      "price_win_wrong_n": 193,
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    "fixed_groups_pick_heavy_acquisitions": {
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      "next_points_percentile_gap": 11.660738860738862
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}