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Is A.J. Brown for George Pickens fair?

A.J. Brown and George Pickens have been on opposite sides of 29 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 10 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 10 of those 10 times it was the George Pickens side (0 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating A.J. Brown as the more valuable of the two.

29
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
0 / 10
One side sweetened: A.J. Brown / George Pickens

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today A.J. Brown prices at 5,646 and George Pickens at 4,858, so the market currently rates A.J. Brown about 1.2x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with A.J. BrownWent with George Pickens
2026-04-26-13%James CookTerrance Ferguson, 1 1st, 1 2nd
2026-04-09-22%Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, 1 later pickJacoby Brissett, J.K. Dobbins, Chris Olave, 1 more
2025-11-12+11%1 1st, 1 2ndBreece Hall
2025-09-16+84%1 2nd
2025-08-22+34%1 3rd1 1st, 1 later pick
2025-08-06+67%Jordan MasonMatthew Golden
2025-06-22+99%1 2nd, 1 3rd
2025-05-02+6%1 2nd1 1st
2025-03-26+24%Deebo Samuel
2025-03-19+3%Chris Olave, 1 2nd, 1 3rd

Read each row as: A.J. Brown, plus anything in the third column, was traded for George Pickens plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received A.J. Brown; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 29, the whole-deal value gap runs +34.1% from the side that received A.J. Brown, so the side ending up with A.J. Brown has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is A.J. Brown for George Pickens fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 29 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every A.J. Brown trade · Every George Pickens trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms