The Perception Gap: What Calculators Ask vs What Trades Clear At
Trade calculators put the bar for a package at about 1.32x. Real dynasty trades clear at 0.85x when an elite player is involved.
Questions a calculator cannot answer, measured from deals that actually happened.
I publish the sample, method, and limits with every result. If the data does not clear its floor, there is no page.
Trade calculators put the bar for a package at about 1.32x. Real dynasty trades clear at 0.85x when an elite player is involved.
Packaging for a solid starter clears at 1.22x. Packaging for an elite player clears at 0.85x. Depth is worth least exactly where you want to spend it.
Measured across 31,643 player-years: what a dynasty asset is worth twelve months later, by position and age.
4,608 dynasty teams that finished bottom third and sold. One year later they were level with the teams that did nothing (14% vs 15% top three). Three years later, 29% vs 21%.
Losing teams in the best fifth of trade-day negotiating finished top three the next season 24.4% of the time. The worst fifth did it 10.2% of the time, across 3,534 dynasty team-seasons.
Managers who won the price but missed on one-year asset value reached next year's top three 23.2% of the time. Managers who overpaid but picked the better-moving assets got there 11.9% of the time, across 2,947 losing Superflex team-seasons.
Only 6.74% of 183,795 completed dynasty trades were one player for one player. The median real deal moved four assets.
The corpus comes from public Sleeper leagues brought into Read Option. It is not a random sample of every dynasty league.