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Is Chris Olave for Josh Downs fair?

Chris Olave and Josh Downs have been on opposite sides of 21 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

In 3 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, split 0 to 3 between the Chris Olave side and the Josh Downs side. That is too close, and too small a sample, to call either player the more valuable.

21
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
0 / 3
One side sweetened: Chris Olave / Josh Downs

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Chris Olave prices at 6,116 and Josh Downs at 1,047, so the market currently rates Chris Olave about 5.8x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Chris OlaveWent with Josh Downs
2026-07-08+60%1 1st1 1st
2026-04-27+24%Chase Brown, 1 3rdMatthew Golden, Brock Purdy
2026-03-16-22%Tyler ShoughTreVeyon Henderson, 1 1st
2026-01-31+65%Will LevisKenneth Walker
2025-10-26-24%Kimani Vidal, Cade OttonKayshon Boutte, 1 1st
2025-10-11+4%D'Andre Swift1 1st
2025-10-01+22%Colston LovelandTyler Warren
2025-06-25+97%Keenan Allen, 1 2ndCam Skattebo, Elijah Moore
2025-04-28+4%James Conner, Joe Burrow, Chuba HubbardMarvin Harrison, Tyreek Hill, 1 1st, 1 2nd
2025-03-19+73%1 2nd

Read each row as: Chris Olave, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Josh Downs plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Chris Olave; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 21, the whole-deal value gap runs +40.2% from the side that received Chris Olave, so the side ending up with Chris Olave has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Chris Olave for Josh Downs fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 21 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Chris Olave trade · Every Josh Downs trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms