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Is Justin Jefferson for Lamar Jackson fair?

Justin Jefferson and Lamar Jackson have been on opposite sides of 22 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

Most of those were larger deals with other pieces attached. 3 of them were straight up: Justin Jefferson for Lamar Jackson, nothing else changing hands.

In 3 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, split 1 to 2 between the Justin Jefferson side and the Lamar Jackson side. That is too close, and too small a sample, to call either player the more valuable.

22
Deals they were both in
3
Straight up, one for one
1 / 2
One side sweetened: Justin Jefferson / Lamar Jackson

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Justin Jefferson prices at 9,205 and Lamar Jackson at 4,824, so the market currently rates Justin Jefferson about 1.9x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Justin JeffersonWent with Lamar Jackson
2026-06-07-25%Josh Jacobs
2025-05-03-4%
2025-04-21-2%1 1st, 1 3rd1 1st, 1 3rd
2024-04-28-11%1 1st, 2 3rdsTank Dell, 1 1st, 1 2nd
2024-01-11-44%1 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd, 1 later pickTony Pollard, Ja'Marr Chase
2023-11-05+23%Kirk Cousins, De'Von Achane, 2 2ndsGeno Smith, Mike Evans, Aaron Jones
2023-11-01-0%Roschon Johnson, Kirk Cousins, James Robinson, 1 more, 2 3rdsGus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, Tyler Huntley, 1 more
2023-10-20+3%Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison, Cam Akers, 1 moreMichael Gallup, Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet
2023-06-13+35%1 1st, 1 3rd2 2nds, 1 3rd
2023-06-12-30%Aaron Rodgers, 1 3rdMark Andrews, Rachaad White

Read each row as: Justin Jefferson, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Lamar Jackson plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Justin Jefferson; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 22, the whole-deal value gap runs +2.9% from the side that received Justin Jefferson - close to even. Read that as a measure of the entire trade, every piece included, not of these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Justin Jefferson for Lamar Jackson fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 22 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Justin Jefferson trade · Every Lamar Jackson trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms