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Is Patrick Mahomes for Russell Wilson fair?

Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson have been on opposite sides of 24 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 6 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 6 of those 6 times it was the Russell Wilson side (0 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Patrick Mahomes as the more valuable of the two.

24
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
0 / 6
One side sweetened: Patrick Mahomes / Russell Wilson
Grade Patrick Mahomes for Russell Wilson now Scout your league

The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Patrick MahomesWent with Russell Wilson
2025-06-12+60%Xavier Hutchinson, Jonathan Mingo, Jaleel McLaughlin, 15 more, 1 1st, 1 3rd, 1 later pickSpencer Rattler, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, 9 more, 1 3rd, 3 later picks
2025-01-12+77%Jacob Cowing, T.J. Hockenson, Chris Godwin, 20 more, 2 3rds, 1 later pickJauan Jennings, Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Wilson, 15 more, 1 later pick
2025-01-06+56%Kenny Gainwell, 1 1st, 1 2ndJames Cook, KaVontae Turpin, 1 3rd
2024-11-11+21%Darnell MooneyBijan Robinson
2023-11-10+24%Tyler Boyd, Dalvin Cook, Justice Hill, 2 later picksElijah Moore, James Cook, 2 1sts, 1 2nd
2023-06-02+76%Amari Cooper, J.K. Dobbins
2023-04-26-3%Brandon AiyukDJ Moore, Alec Pierce, 2 1sts
2023-03-31-7%1 3rd, 2 later picksDarnell Mooney, Mac Jones, 3 1sts
2023-01-07-22%Adam Thielen, David Montgomery, Jakobi Meyers, 1 more, 2 later picksMichael Thomas, Samaje Perine, Damien Harris, 1 more, 1 1st, 1 2nd
2022-11-28-17%DK Metcalf, Kyle Pitts

Read each row as: Patrick Mahomes, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Russell Wilson plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Patrick Mahomes; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 24, the whole-deal value gap runs +3.4% from the side that received Patrick Mahomes, so the side ending up with Patrick Mahomes has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Patrick Mahomes for Russell Wilson fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 24 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Patrick Mahomes trade · Every Russell Wilson trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms