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The Dynasty Aging Curve: What a Year Costs, by Position and Age

Measured across 31,123 player-years: what a dynasty asset is worth twelve months later, by position and age.

Every number here is recomputed when the page loads. Nothing is hardcoded.

31,123
Player-years measured
6
Seasons covered

The measurement

PositionUnder 2323 to 2425 to 2627 to 2829 and older
QB1.08x
800
1.14x
1,223
1.01x
1,099
0.97x
662
0.90x
1,012
RB1.00x
2,106
0.94x
3,287
0.70x
2,639
0.62x
1,075
0.75x *
273
WR1.12x
3,164
0.98x
3,608
0.85x
2,732
0.73x
2,290
0.53x
1,478
TE1.21x
540
1.00x
971
0.84x
882
0.63x
602
0.66x
680

Median value twelve months later, as a multiple of value at the time. 1.00 means the asset held its price. Sample size under each figure. * Running backs still rostered and priced at 29 or older are the ones who did not fall off, so that cell describes survivors rather than aging, and should not be read as old backs holding value.

How it was measured

Every player in every weekly value snapshot is paired with his own value twelve months later, and the median is taken per position and age band. Ages come from birth date at the time of the snapshot, so a player moves between bands as he ages.

Cells below their sample floor are not published. The effect is not carried by rookies (it holds with the under-23 band removed entirely) and it is not carried by one season (it holds in every year measured).

What this does not mean. A declining value is not automatically a loss. Dynasty value is the present value of future production, so an older player is priced lower because he offers less of it later, and his decline is partly the asset paying out. Age is already inside the price. These figures describe the path, not an edge.

Using it

Free to cite, link back if you do. To check one specific deal, the trade grader runs your exact trade through this, and is this trade fair? covers what it means in practice.

Grade a trade against this Scout your league
Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms