3,872 dynasty teams that finished bottom third and sold. One year later they were level with the teams that did nothing (14% vs 15% top three). Three years later, 29% vs 21%.
Every number here is recomputed when the page loads. Nothing is hardcoded.
| What they did | One year later | Two years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sold (net +2 rookie picks) 3,872 teams | 14% | 24% | 29% |
| Stood pat (no trades) 1,786 teams | 15% | 18% | 21% |
Share finishing top three. For scale, a top-three finish is about 25% by chance in this sample. Bottom-third finishers only, so both groups started in the same place. Same teams at every stage. Only about a third are still in their league after three years, and dropping the rest would flatter the result. No player values anywhere. Rookie picks and final standings only.
I follow leagues from one season to the next, so I can track a team after it tears down. Bottom-third finishers get split by what they actually did that year. Net two or more rookie picks counts as selling. No trades at all counts as standing pat.
Only those two groups get published. Trade without netting two picks and you are neither, so you are out. Miss any of the three seasons and you are out too. That is why this compares fewer teams than I hold bottom-third teams on file.
Groups below the sample floor never get published at all.
Year one is the part people miss. Selling buys nothing for a full season, and that is when most managers quit on it.
Free to cite, link back if you do. To check one specific deal, the trade grader runs your exact trade through this, and is this trade fair? covers what it means in practice.