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The Perception Gap: What Calculators Ask vs What Trades Clear At

Trade calculators put the bar for a package at about 1.32x. Real dynasty trades clear at 0.85x when an elite player is involved.

Every number here is recomputed when the page loads. Nothing is hardcoded.

17,383
Real trades measured
0.85x
Elite player clears at
1.32x
Calculator bar

The measurement

ShapeThe single playerClears atMiddle halfTrades
Two for oneSolid starter1.22x0.81x to 1.79x5,517
Two for oneVery good player1.05x0.76x to 1.21x4,153
Two for oneElite player0.85x0.69x to 1.04x3,174
Three or more for oneSolid starter1.46x1.00x to 2.19x757
Three or more for oneVery good player1.17x0.85x to 1.55x1,237
Three or more for oneElite player0.89x0.71x to 1.10x2,545

Ratio of the package side's total value to the single player's value, priced on the day each trade happened. Medians, not averages. Fit refreshed 2026-07-28.

How it was measured

I price every completed dynasty trade in the corpus at the player values that were current the day it happened. Package-for-one deals get grouped by the tier of the single player, using that snapshot's 95th percentile so a 2022 star and a 2026 star land in the same band.

I throw out the throw-ins, so a bench piece cannot make a two-for-one look like a three-for-one, and no single league can dominate a bucket. Buckets below their sample floor never get published at all.

The 1.32x calculator bar is not my measurement. It is the package premium a public trade calculator asks for, read off its own value-adjustment tool at each tier, where it sits close to flat rather than moving with the player. Treat it as an approximate reading of what calculators ask, and the clearing figures above as the measured part.

Using it

Free to cite, link back if you do. To check one specific deal, the trade grader runs your exact trade through this, and is this trade fair? covers what it means in practice.

Grade a trade against this Scout your league
Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms