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Is Derek Carr for Kyler Murray fair?

Derek Carr and Kyler Murray have been on opposite sides of 23 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 5 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 5 of those 5 times it was the Derek Carr side (0 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Kyler Murray as the more valuable of the two.

23
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
5 / 0
One side sweetened: Derek Carr / Kyler Murray
Grade Derek Carr for Kyler Murray now Scout your league

The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Derek CarrWent with Kyler Murray
2024-10-29-25%Xavier Worthy, Cooper Kupp, Jordan Love, 1 more, 1 1stMarvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Diontae Johnson, 1 more
2024-09-20+7%Ja'Marr ChaseJayden Reed
2024-03-20-8%Amon-Ra St. Brown, Pat FreiermuthDalton Kincaid, 1 3rd
2023-09-12-25%Travis Kelce, Mike EvansTee Higgins
2023-07-28-1%Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore1 1st, 1 2nd
2023-07-25+16%Breece HallJahan Dotson, 1 2nd
2023-07-10+34%A.T. Perry, Austin Ekeler, Christian Kirk, 1 moreJavonte Williams, Romeo Doubs, Josh Downs, 1 more, 1 2nd, 1 3rd
2023-07-05+39%Saquon Barkley, Allen Lazard, Tee HigginsJavonte Williams, Evan Hull, 1 3rd
2023-06-20-37%Deebo SamuelKayshon Boutte
2023-05-04+34%Michael Thomas, Christian McCaffrey, 1 3rdColt McCoy, Devin Singletary, Isaiah Spiller, 1 2nd

Read each row as: Derek Carr, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Kyler Murray plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Derek Carr; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 23, the whole-deal value gap runs -10.5% from the side that received Derek Carr, so the side ending up with Kyler Murray has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Derek Carr for Kyler Murray fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 23 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Derek Carr trade · Every Kyler Murray trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms