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Is DeVonta Smith for Josh Allen fair?

DeVonta Smith and Josh Allen have been on opposite sides of 23 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 6 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 6 of those 6 times it was the DeVonta Smith side (0 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Josh Allen as the more valuable of the two.

23
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
6 / 0
One side sweetened: DeVonta Smith / Josh Allen

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today DeVonta Smith prices at 5,020 and Josh Allen at 6,878, so the market currently rates Josh Allen about 1.4x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with DeVonta SmithWent with Josh Allen
2026-05-09+40%Kyren Williams, Brock Purdy, 1 1st, 1 2nd
2026-04-23-32%DJ Moore, David Montgomery, D'Andre Swift, 1 1st, 1 2ndBrandon Aiyuk, Jalen Tolbert, Chase Brown, 2 later picks
2025-11-30-12%Ben Sinnott, Jaylin Noel, 2 1sts, 2 2nds, 2 3rds, 2 later picksChristian Watson
2025-10-19-8%Justin Jefferson, C.J. StroudXavier Worthy, Brian Thomas, 1 3rd
2025-05-11+26%Ja'Tavion Sanders, Brock Purdy, 2 1sts
2025-03-06+23%Bo Nix, Marquise Brown, Jalen HurtsTyler Higbee, Brock Purdy
2024-10-31+2%Justin Herbert
2024-10-11-74%Dak PrescottPuka Nacua
2024-09-26+4%Jayden Reed, Dak PrescottRashod Bateman
2024-08-27-3%Breece Hall, Brock Purdy, 2 3rdsJaylen Waddle, Rhamondre Stevenson

Read each row as: DeVonta Smith, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Josh Allen plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received DeVonta Smith; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 23, the whole-deal value gap runs +3.9% from the side that received DeVonta Smith, so the side ending up with DeVonta Smith has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is DeVonta Smith for Josh Allen fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 23 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every DeVonta Smith trade · Every Josh Allen trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms