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Is Josh Downs for Terry McLaurin fair?

Josh Downs and Terry McLaurin have been on opposite sides of 20 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

Most of those were larger deals with other pieces attached. 2 of them were straight up: Josh Downs for Terry McLaurin, nothing else changing hands.

In 3 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, split 3 to 0 between the Josh Downs side and the Terry McLaurin side. That is too close, and too small a sample, to call either player the more valuable.

20
Deals they were both in
2
Straight up, one for one
3 / 0
One side sweetened: Josh Downs / Terry McLaurin

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Josh Downs prices at 1,047 and Terry McLaurin at 1,768, so the market currently rates Terry McLaurin about 1.7x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Josh DownsWent with Terry McLaurin
2026-05-20-19%Brian Thomas, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, 1 moreXavier Worthy, Colston Loveland, Patrick Mahomes, 1 more
2026-04-03+43%Troy Franklin, 3 1sts, 1 3rdAmon-Ra St. Brown
2025-12-06-86%
2025-12-04-27%1 2ndEmanuel Wilson
2025-09-17+34%Dalton Kincaid, 2 3rds, 1 later pick
2025-08-31-28%Xavier Legette, Will Howard, Jared Goff, 2 1sts, 2 2nds, 2 3rdsCam Ward, Brock Purdy, Zay Flowers
2025-08-29-23%Dalton Kincaid, Tory Horton, Rashid ShaheedAdam Thielen, 1 1st
2025-05-06-7%1 1st, 1 3rdRhamondre Stevenson, 1 2nd
2025-03-22-4%Dak Prescott, Breece Hall, Tucker Kraft, 1 2nd, 1 3rdTrey Benson, Ladd McConkey, Baker Mayfield
2025-01-29-67%2 3rdsCedric Tillman, 1 later pick

Read each row as: Josh Downs, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Terry McLaurin plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Josh Downs; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 20, the whole-deal value gap runs -27.5% from the side that received Josh Downs, so the side ending up with Terry McLaurin has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Josh Downs for Terry McLaurin fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 20 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Josh Downs trade · Every Terry McLaurin trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms