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Is Lamar Jackson for Tua Tagovailoa fair?

Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa have been on opposite sides of 28 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 8 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 7 of those 8 times it was the Tua Tagovailoa side (1 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Lamar Jackson as the more valuable of the two.

28
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
1 / 7
One side sweetened: Lamar Jackson / Tua Tagovailoa

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Lamar Jackson prices at 4,824 and Tua Tagovailoa at 122, so the market currently rates Lamar Jackson about 39.5x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Lamar JacksonWent with Tua Tagovailoa
2026-05-07+19%Jayden Reed, Jalen Tolbert, Nico Collins, 10 moreCeeDee Lamb, Bucky Irving, Jalen Hurts, 19 more
2025-10-12+83%Carson Wentz, James Conner, 2 later picksDaniel Jones, Kyren Williams
2025-06-02-4%1 later pickBucky Irving, Kaleb Johnson, Tyreek Hill
2025-05-30+5%Wan'Dale RobinsonMalik Nabers
2024-08-14+23%Dallas GoedertMichael Penix, Zay Flowers
2024-05-06+44%Sam LaPorta, Josh Reynolds, Ronald Jones, 7 more, 1 3rd, 1 later pickDerrick Henry, Hunter Henry, Tyler Boyd, 8 more, 1 1st, 1 later pick
2024-04-10+20%1 2nd1 1st
2023-10-25-20%Derek Carr, Austin Ekeler, Mark Andrews, 1 2ndDalton Schultz, Justin Fields, Bijan Robinson
2023-09-11+20%1 2ndRondale Moore, 1 1st, 1 3rd
2023-07-28+28%Skyy MooreMichael Wilson, 1 1st

Read each row as: Lamar Jackson, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Tua Tagovailoa plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Lamar Jackson; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 28, the whole-deal value gap runs +19.2% from the side that received Lamar Jackson, so the side ending up with Lamar Jackson has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Lamar Jackson for Tua Tagovailoa fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 28 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Lamar Jackson trade · Every Tua Tagovailoa trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms