Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes have been on opposite sides of 28 real dynasty trades.
Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.
None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.
This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 7 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 7 of those 7 times it was the Deshaun Watson side (0 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Patrick Mahomes as the more valuable of the two.
Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Deshaun Watson prices at 37 and Patrick Mahomes at 4,309, so the market currently rates Patrick Mahomes about 116.5x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.
Values as of 2026-07-24.
| Date | Margin | Went with Deshaun Watson | Went with Patrick Mahomes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | -85% | Shedeur Sanders, Carnell Tate | — |
| 2024-11-17 | -16% | David Montgomery, CeeDee Lamb, Trevor Lawrence, 2 more | Geno Smith, Keenan Allen, T.J. Hockenson, 2 more |
| 2024-07-02 | -5% | David Njoku, Garrett Wilson | 1 3rd |
| 2024-03-28 | -25% | Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, Wan'Dale Robinson, 2 more, 2 1sts, 1 2nd | Joe Mixon, Josh Allen, 1 later pick |
| 2024-03-26 | -52% | 1 1st | — |
| 2024-03-19 | +3% | Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Alvin Kamara, 2 more | Kadarius Toney, Chig Okonkwo, Blaine Gabbert, 1 2nd |
| 2024-03-15 | +0% | Justin Fields, 1 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd | 1 1st |
| 2023-12-01 | +10% | Joe Burrow, Isiah Pacheco, 1 3rd | Joe Mixon, Dontayvion Wicks |
| 2023-11-18 | +5% | Aidan O'Connell, Ja'Marr Chase | — |
| 2023-09-18 | -40% | Jameson Williams, Puka Nacua, 1 2nd | — |
Read each row as: Deshaun Watson, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Patrick Mahomes plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Deshaun Watson; positive means that side came out ahead.
Across all 28, the whole-deal value gap runs -9.5% from the side that received Deshaun Watson, so the side ending up with Patrick Mahomes has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.
A calculator answers “is Deshaun Watson for Patrick Mahomes fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 28 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.
How trade fairness actually works →
Every Deshaun Watson trade · Every Patrick Mahomes trade
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