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Is Jared Goff for Trevor Lawrence fair?

Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence have been on opposite sides of 40 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

Most of those were larger deals with other pieces attached. 1 of them were straight up: Jared Goff for Trevor Lawrence, nothing else changing hands.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 10 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 9 of those 10 times it was the Jared Goff side (1 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Trevor Lawrence as the more valuable of the two.

40
Deals they were both in
1
Straight up, one for one
9 / 1
One side sweetened: Jared Goff / Trevor Lawrence

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Jared Goff prices at 884 and Trevor Lawrence at 2,545, so the market currently rates Trevor Lawrence about 2.9x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Jared GoffWent with Trevor Lawrence
2026-04-19+18%CeeDee LambRome Odunze
2025-11-27-45%Deebo Samuel, Colby ParkinsonBrandon Aiyuk, Brenton Strange, 1 later pick
2025-11-14-25%Jake Ferguson, Kyren WilliamsElic Ayomanor, Colston Loveland, TreVeyon Henderson, 2 3rds
2025-10-20+2%Bijan Robinson, 1 3rdCam Skattebo, Kyle Pitts, 1 1st, 1 2nd
2025-06-04-34%James Conner, Tee Higgins, Nico CollinsA.J. Brown, Breece Hall, 1 1st
2025-05-02+17%1 1st
2025-05-02-7%Jameson WilliamsDavid Montgomery
2024-12-19-56%James Conner, Matthew StaffordJonathon Brooks, Chris Olave, Will Levis
2024-11-21-72%Jameis Winston, Jerry JeudyTravis Etienne, 1 2nd
2024-11-20-48%Jordan AddisonChris Olave, 1 3rd, 1 later pick

Read each row as: Jared Goff, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Trevor Lawrence plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Jared Goff; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 40, the whole-deal value gap runs -13.0% from the side that received Jared Goff, so the side ending up with Trevor Lawrence has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Jared Goff for Trevor Lawrence fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 40 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Jared Goff trade · Every Trevor Lawrence trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms