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Is J.J. McCarthy for Kyler Murray fair?

J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray have been on opposite sides of 24 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

In 2 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, split 2 to 0 between the J.J. McCarthy side and the Kyler Murray side. That is too close, and too small a sample, to call either player the more valuable.

24
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
2 / 0
One side sweetened: J.J. McCarthy / Kyler Murray

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today J.J. McCarthy prices at 95 and Kyler Murray at 505, so the market currently rates Kyler Murray about 5.3x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with J.J. McCarthyWent with Kyler Murray
2026-05-19+63%Jerry Jeudy, Brian Robinson, Trey Benson, 15 moreJake Tonges, Jaylen Waddle, TreVeyon Henderson, 9 more
2026-02-20-97%Gunnar Helm1 3rd
2026-02-12+14%Rico Dowdle, 1 1stTravis Etienne
2026-01-13-56%1 3rdTyler Allgeier
2025-11-14-39%Jaxson Dart, Davis Mills, 1 2ndGarrett Wilson, 1 1st, 1 later pick
2025-10-10-10%Jayden HigginsEvan Engram
2025-10-09-32%Colby ParkinsonMitchell Evans
2025-09-16-27%Carson Wentz
2025-08-24-50%Jake Ferguson, Isaiah LikelyStefon Diggs, George Kittle
2025-05-24-22%Luther Burden, Amari Cooper, Stefon DiggsKa'imi Fairbairn

Read each row as: J.J. McCarthy, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Kyler Murray plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received J.J. McCarthy; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 24, the whole-deal value gap runs -32.1% from the side that received J.J. McCarthy, so the side ending up with Kyler Murray has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is J.J. McCarthy for Kyler Murray fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 24 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every J.J. McCarthy trade · Every Kyler Murray trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms