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Is Justin Herbert for Kirk Cousins fair?

Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins have been on opposite sides of 25 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 9 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 9 of those 9 times it was the Kirk Cousins side (0 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Justin Herbert as the more valuable of the two.

25
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
0 / 9
One side sweetened: Justin Herbert / Kirk Cousins

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Justin Herbert prices at 3,160 and Kirk Cousins at 25, so the market currently rates Justin Herbert about 126.4x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Justin HerbertWent with Kirk Cousins
2025-06-03+27%Khalil Shakir, 1 1stZach Ertz, Ja'Marr Chase
2024-09-22+88%Alvin Kamara, Jakobi Meyers
2024-09-11-2%Cole Kmet, Chris Olave, Keaton Mitchell, 1 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds, 1 later pickAdam Thielen, Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, 2 more, 1 later pick
2024-06-26+112%Aidan O'Connell, Evan Hull, 1 2nd
2024-06-15+25%Saquon Barkley, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurinMichael Penix, Trey Benson, Marvin Harrison
2024-06-04+48%Gabe DavisJared Goff
2024-05-02+14%1 1st, 1 2nd
2024-04-22-18%Michael Pittman, 1 1st
2023-09-12+105%Derek Carr
2023-08-30+46%Easton Stick, Justyn Ross, Tucker Kraft, 1 1stDeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jamaal Williams, 4 more, 1 later pick

Read each row as: Justin Herbert, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Kirk Cousins plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Justin Herbert; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 25, the whole-deal value gap runs +16.9% from the side that received Justin Herbert, so the side ending up with Justin Herbert has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Justin Herbert for Kirk Cousins fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 25 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Justin Herbert trade · Every Kirk Cousins trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms