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Is Justin Jefferson for Nico Collins fair?

Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins have been on opposite sides of 28 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 4 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 3 of those 4 times it was the Nico Collins side (1 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Justin Jefferson as the more valuable of the two.

28
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
1 / 3
One side sweetened: Justin Jefferson / Nico Collins

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Justin Jefferson prices at 9,205 and Nico Collins at 6,188, so the market currently rates Justin Jefferson about 1.5x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Justin JeffersonWent with Nico Collins
2025-12-16+63%1 2nd
2025-12-04+32%Sam LaPorta, Justin Herbert, 1 1stMark Andrews, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins
2025-11-30+17%Cam Skattebo, Kenneth WalkerTreVeyon Henderson, Terry McLaurin
2025-11-14+32%Brian Thomas, 1 1st, 1 3rdJayden Reed, Jahmyr Gibbs
2025-11-08-3%Cam Skattebo, Jared Goff
2025-11-06+57%Gunnar Helm, Calvin AustinDalton Schultz, Kayshon Boutte
2025-08-03-21%2 1sts, 1 2ndSam Darnold, James Cook, C.J. Stroud
2025-07-25+23%1 2nd1 1st
2025-05-02+11%Russell Wilson, 1 1st, 1 later pickBo Nix, 1 2nd, 1 3rd
2025-04-29-4%1 3rd1 1st, 1 2nd

Read each row as: Justin Jefferson, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Nico Collins plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Justin Jefferson; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 28, the whole-deal value gap runs +14.6% from the side that received Justin Jefferson, so the side ending up with Justin Jefferson has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Justin Jefferson for Nico Collins fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 28 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Justin Jefferson trade · Every Nico Collins trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms