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Is Justin Jefferson for Tyreek Hill fair?

Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill have been on opposite sides of 34 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 8 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 8 of those 8 times it was the Tyreek Hill side (0 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Justin Jefferson as the more valuable of the two.

34
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
0 / 8
One side sweetened: Justin Jefferson / Tyreek Hill

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Justin Jefferson prices at 9,205 and Tyreek Hill at 453, so the market currently rates Justin Jefferson about 20.3x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Justin JeffersonWent with Tyreek Hill
2025-09-11+46%Zach Ertz, Isiah Pacheco, 1 1st
2025-06-02-45%Austin Ekeler, Dallas Goedert, Deebo SamuelKyren Williams, Jaylen Warren, C.J. Stroud, 1 1st
2025-05-07-10%Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor
2025-05-02-4%Alvin Kamara2 1sts, 1 3rd
2024-11-07+10%Dalton Kincaid, Marquise BrownMike Evans, Amari Cooper, Christian McCaffrey
2024-11-05-19%DeAndre Hopkins, Zay FlowersDJ Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashid Shaheed
2024-09-05+12%Khalil HerbertJayden Reed, Travis Kelce, Jordan Mason
2024-08-03-1%De'Von Achane, Zach CharbonnetJermaine Burton, Diontae Johnson, Bijan Robinson
2024-07-23-48%1 3rdZack Moss, Chris Olave, 1 3rd
2024-04-17-9%Mac Jones, 1 2ndDak Prescott

Read each row as: Justin Jefferson, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Tyreek Hill plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Justin Jefferson; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 34, the whole-deal value gap runs -2.4% from the side that received Justin Jefferson - close to even. Read that as a measure of the entire trade, every piece included, not of these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Justin Jefferson for Tyreek Hill fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 34 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Justin Jefferson trade · Every Tyreek Hill trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms