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Is Baker Mayfield for Joe Burrow fair?

Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow have been on opposite sides of 30 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 8 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 7 of those 8 times it was the Baker Mayfield side (1 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Joe Burrow as the more valuable of the two.

30
Deals they were both in
0
Straight up, one for one
7 / 1
One side sweetened: Baker Mayfield / Joe Burrow

What they cost today

Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Baker Mayfield prices at 714 and Joe Burrow at 3,751, so the market currently rates Joe Burrow about 5.3x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.

Values as of 2026-07-24.

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The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Baker MayfieldWent with Joe Burrow
2026-06-20+28%Jake Tonges, Cade Otton, Isaiah Likely, 14 more, 1 2ndJoe Flacco, Noah Gray, Deebo Samuel, 6 more, 3 1sts, 2 3rds, 2 later picks
2025-12-09+15%Jayden Daniels, Ashton Jeanty, 1 1stChristian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, 1 1st
2025-11-15-16%Zach Ertz, Rico Dowdle, Wan'Dale RobinsonIsaiah Davis, Luther Burden, Jake Tonges, 1 3rd, 1 later pick
2025-11-12-3%Jahmyr GibbsChris Olave, Chase Brown
2025-10-19-51%Anthony Gould
2025-10-12-31%Keenan Allen, J.K. Dobbins, Jerome Ford2 2nds, 1 3rd
2025-10-04+8%Dalton Kincaid, Derrick Henry1 2nd, 1 3rd, 1 later pick
2025-09-24-22%DJ Moore, 1 2nd
2025-09-16-93%Cedric Tillman, 1 3rd1 2nd
2025-06-19-6%Jayden Reed, 1 1st

Read each row as: Baker Mayfield, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Joe Burrow plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Baker Mayfield; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 30, the whole-deal value gap runs -7.3% from the side that received Baker Mayfield, so the side ending up with Joe Burrow has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Baker Mayfield for Joe Burrow fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 30 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Baker Mayfield trade · Every Joe Burrow trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms