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Is Russell Wilson for Trey Lance fair?

Russell Wilson and Trey Lance have been on opposite sides of 25 real dynasty trades.

Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.

Most of those were larger deals with other pieces attached. 1 of them were straight up: Russell Wilson for Trey Lance, nothing else changing hands.

This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 5 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 4 of those 5 times it was the Russell Wilson side (1 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Trey Lance as the more valuable of the two.

25
Deals they were both in
1
Straight up, one for one
4 / 1
One side sweetened: Russell Wilson / Trey Lance
Grade Russell Wilson for Trey Lance now Scout your league

The deals themselves

DateMarginWent with Russell WilsonWent with Trey Lance
2026-02-15-19%Devontez Walker, Davis Mills, Daniel Jones, 15 more, 1 1stJerry Jeudy, Efton Chism, Rachaad White, 17 more
2024-10-26+72%Tyler Lockett, Colby Parkinson, Jake FergusonSpencer Rattler, Jermaine Burton, Tyrone Tracy, 2 3rds
2023-09-19+120%Jahan Dotson, 2 later picksGunner Olszewski, Noah Gray, 2 2nds
2023-06-20+3%
2023-06-04-53%Irv SmithBrock Purdy
2023-06-02+111%Terry McLaurin, Rhamondre Stevenson1 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd
2023-03-31-76%1 2nd
2023-03-13+13%Saquon Barkley1 1st, 1 2nd
2023-03-11-14%Ja'Marr ChaseDK Metcalf, 1 1st
2023-02-27+25%1 2nd

Read each row as: Russell Wilson, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Trey Lance plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Russell Wilson; positive means that side came out ahead.

The whole-deal margin

Across all 25, the whole-deal value gap runs +9.4% from the side that received Russell Wilson, so the side ending up with Russell Wilson has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.

Why this beats a calculator on this exact question

A calculator answers “is Russell Wilson for Trey Lance fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 25 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.

How trade fairness actually works →

Full trade histories

Every Russell Wilson trade · Every Trey Lance trade

Other matchups for these two

All players with real trade data →

Values from DynastyProcess and nflverse. Trades from public Sleeper leagues. When the data will not support a fair grade I leave it out and say so. Is this trade fair? · All players · Privacy · Terms