Trey Lance and Tua Tagovailoa have been on opposite sides of 25 real dynasty trades.
Not simulations and not a calculator lining up two numbers. Every one of them is a completed trade from a public Sleeper league, graded at the player values that were current on the day it happened.
None of them were a straight one-for-one. Every time these two crossed, something else was attached to close it.
This is the part a calculator cannot tell you. In 8 of these deals exactly one side had to attach something extra, and 6 of those 8 times it was the Trey Lance side (2 the other way). The side that keeps having to add is the side holding the lesser asset, so the market has been treating Tua Tagovailoa as the more valuable of the two.
Everything above is priced on the day each deal happened, which is the only honest way to grade a completed trade. It is not what they cost now. Today Trey Lance prices at 3 and Tua Tagovailoa at 122, so the market currently rates Tua Tagovailoa about 40.7x the other. A pair can lean one way across its history and price the opposite way now; that gap is the whole reason to check the deal in front of you rather than the deal someone made in 2023.
Values as of 2026-07-24.
| Date | Margin | Went with Trey Lance | Went with Tua Tagovailoa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | +11% | Efton Chism, Jalen Hurts, Zach Ertz, 10 more, 1 1st, 1 2nd, 2 later picks | Dak Prescott, Brandin Cooks, Jake Browning, 18 more, 1 1st, 1 3rd |
| 2023-08-20 | +58% | Dalton Kincaid, Alvin Kamara, Jerry Jeudy, 2 1sts | Luke Schoonmaker, David Montgomery, Tank Dell, 1 2nd |
| 2023-08-07 | +45% | Tee Higgins | — |
| 2023-07-19 | -21% | George Kittle, Miles Sanders, Ja'Marr Chase | A.J. Brown, Travis Etienne, Chig Okonkwo, 1 3rd |
| 2023-05-18 | -13% | Kadarius Toney, 1 2nd | — |
| 2023-05-13 | +49% | 1 1st, 1 3rd | — |
| 2023-05-11 | -21% | Ja'Marr Chase | Tony Pollard, Amon-Ra St. Brown |
| 2023-05-04 | -30% | DJ Chark, 1 1st, 1 2nd | Travis Etienne |
| 2023-05-02 | +13% | Christian Watson, 1 3rd | Drew Lock, Gabe Davis, Rondale Moore, 1 later pick |
| 2023-05-01 | -22% | Calvin Ridley, Javonte Williams | DeVonta Smith |
Read each row as: Trey Lance, plus anything in the third column, was traded for Tua Tagovailoa plus anything in the fourth. An em dash means that side sent nobody else. Margin is the value gap at that day’s prices from the side that received Trey Lance; positive means that side came out ahead.
Across all 25, the whole-deal value gap runs -14.0% from the side that received Trey Lance, so the side ending up with Tua Tagovailoa has generally come out ahead on face value. That measures the entire trade, every piece included, not these two players against each other.
A calculator answers “is Trey Lance for Tua Tagovailoa fair” by subtracting one number from another, and it gives every manager in your league the same answer. That tells you nothing about whether the trade closes. What closes it is whether one side has to attach a piece, and which side that usually is. The 25 deals above are the record of what leagues actually agreed to when these two were on the table together.
How trade fairness actually works →
Every Trey Lance trade · Every Tua Tagovailoa trade
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